Port FC 3-2 Pattani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pattani travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Pattani — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.97 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Pattani trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 100% and Pattani 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 100% | Pattani 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.75 xG and Pattani 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.156 / defence 0.905 | Pattani attack 0.950 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.233. Data: 33 Port FC games / 3 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 53% | Draw 24% | Pattani 23%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Pattani 4.35. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Pattani 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 53% | Draw 24% | Pattani 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Port FC 1.75 / Pattani 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.156 / def 0.905 | Pattani attack 0.950 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Port FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pattani xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Pattani kick off?
Port FC vs Pattani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Pattani?
Port FC 3 - 2 Pattani.
Where is Port FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Pattani part of?
Port FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 53% chance of winning, Pattani a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Pattani in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.16) and Pattani's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.20
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.06
Pattani xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Port FC and 1.06 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Port FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Port FC or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Pattani runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Pattani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattani?
From 1 meetings on record, Port FC have won 1, Pattani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Pattani last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Port FC 3-2 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Pattani?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 100%, Pattani at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Port FC and 67% for Pattani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani in 33%; Pattani in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Pattani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Port FC's games and 33% of Pattani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Port FC's matches and 67% of Pattani's.
Do Port FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Pattani 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Pattani 3-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.75 xG and Pattani 1.06 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pattani outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against Pattani attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 53% | Draw 24% | Pattani 23%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 100%, Pattani 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Pattani's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Pattani scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.