Port FC 2-1 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Lampang FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Lampang FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lampang FC have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 0.52 PPG lead over Lampang FC (1.40 vs 0.88) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lampang FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 62% versus Lampang FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 50% | Lampang FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.62 xG and Lampang FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.383 / defence 0.971 | Lampang FC attack 0.760 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lampang FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Port FC games / 8 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Lampang FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Lampang FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Lampang FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Lampang FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG Port FC 2.62 / Lampang FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.383 / def 0.971 | Lampang FC attack 0.760 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Port FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lampang FC xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lampang FC kick off?
Port FC vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Lampang FC?
Port FC 2 - 1 Lampang FC.
Where is Port FC vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lampang FC part of?
Port FC vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 75% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port FC and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lampang FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Lampang FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Lampang FC (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.38) and Lampang FC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lampang FC's attack (0.76x) against Port FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.56
10%
10.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.48
0.86
Lampang FC xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.56
15%
Draw
10.19
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
7%
13.78
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
140.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Port FC and 0.86 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lampang FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 5D 1L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Port FC's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lampang FC have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lampang FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Lampang FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Lampang FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Port FC or Lampang FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lampang FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Lampang FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Lampang FC 1-3 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lampang FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 75%, Lampang FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port FC) and 50% (Lampang FC).
On the defensive side: Lampang FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Lampang FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Port FC's games and 50% of Lampang FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Lampang FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lampang FC 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.62 xG and Lampang FC 0.86 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.97 against Lampang FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Lampang FC 10%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 50%, Lampang FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lampang FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.