Port FC 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at PAT Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chiangrai United are 0.90 PPG clear of Port FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Port FC 1W, Chiangrai United 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 4–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 46% versus Chiangrai United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 42% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 0.80 xG and Chiangrai United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.194 | Chiangrai United attack 0.950 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.107. Data: 24 Port FC games / 24 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 23% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 46%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Chiangrai United 2.17. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 30% | Chiangrai United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 23% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Port FC 0.80 / Chiangrai United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.898 / def 1.194 | Chiangrai United attack 0.950 / def 0.943 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 9 March 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Port FC 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 23% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Port FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in?
Port FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port FC's attack rating (0.90) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.95x) against Port FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
23%
4.40
31%
3.21
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.06
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 16.1 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Port FC and 1.26 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 5D 10L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Port FC against 1.67 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 6W 1D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.27 points per game from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.67 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Chiangrai United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 12W 4D 8L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.73 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 27%, Chiangrai United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Port FC and 36% for Chiangrai United.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Port FC's recent matches and 46% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Port FC's recent games and 36% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Port FC and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 0.80 xG and Chiangrai United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 23% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 46%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 42%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.33 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.