Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Ayutthaya FC meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Port FC's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Port FC, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 4–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.149 / defence 0.894 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.092. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Ayutthaya FC 4.76. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 40% | Ayutthaya FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Port FC 1.68 / Ayutthaya FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.149 / def 0.894 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Port FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ayutthaya FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 54% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Port FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (0.97x) against Port FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.95
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.95
Ayutthaya FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
25.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Port FC and 0.95 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 14L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 11W 4D 0L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Ayutthaya FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Port FC) and 47% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 53% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Port FC's recent games and 47% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.