Pattaya United 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 43%, yet in-form Police Tero provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pattaya United vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Pattaya United welcome Police Tero to Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pattaya United — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Pattaya United have gone 2W 3D 2L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pattaya United are significantly better at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Police Tero — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pattaya United have won 0, Police Tero 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pattaya United trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Police Tero trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattaya United 62% versus Police Tero 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 56% | Police Tero 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 1.55 xG and Police Tero 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 1.075 / defence 1.361 | Police Tero attack 0.850 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.142. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Pattaya United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Pattaya United games / 16 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 43% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 32%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Police Tero 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattaya United at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Police Tero (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pattaya United 86% | Police Tero 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 43% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pattaya United 1.55 / Police Tero 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 1.075 / def 1.361 | Police Tero attack 0.850 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Police Tero xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Police Tero kick off?
Pattaya United vs Police Tero kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Police Tero?
Pattaya United 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Pattaya United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Police Tero part of?
Pattaya United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 43% chance of winning, Police Tero a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pattaya United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Police Tero?
Record (1 meetings): Pattaya United 0W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Pattaya United and Police Tero in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pattaya United's attack at 1.07x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.04
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
Police Tero xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.32 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Pattaya United have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 3W 6D 7L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pattaya United on 0.94 PPG, Police Tero on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pattaya United have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Police Tero's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pattaya United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pattaya United are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattaya United at home or Police Tero away?
Pattaya United's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattaya United at home: 1.29 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pattaya United and Police Tero runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pattaya United
2
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 0, Police Tero have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Pattaya United 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattaya United 86%, Police Tero 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Pattaya United and 43% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Pattaya United's games and 43% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Pattaya United's matches and 43% of Police Tero's.
Do Pattaya United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pattaya United and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pattaya United and Police Tero finished level at 1-1 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 1.55 xG and Police Tero 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Police Tero attack 0.85 / defence 1.44, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 43% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 32%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 56%, Police Tero 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pattaya United 0.94 PPG, Police Tero 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.