Pattani vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Ratchaburi meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ratchaburi are 0.70 PPG clear of Pattani in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.04 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.713 / defence 0.977 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Pattani's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 32% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 37%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Ratchaburi 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 32% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pattani 1.04 / Ratchaburi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.713 / def 0.977 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 32% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pattani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.71x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.06x) against Pattani's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.17
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Pattani and 1.14 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pattani are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 100%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 100% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.