Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Lamphun Warrior meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.98 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.712 / defence 0.976 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Pattani's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 33% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 35%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Lamphun Warrior 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 33% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Pattani 0.98 / Lamphun Warrior 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.712 / def 0.976 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lamphun Warrior xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 33% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pattani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.71x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.96x) against Pattani's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.11
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.00
1.02
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pattani and 1.02 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pattani are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.