Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Pitchaya Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 59% versus Ratchaburi 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48% | Ratchaburi 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG and Ratchaburi 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.884 / defence 1.087 | Ratchaburi attack 0.551 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.190. Data: 27 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 27 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Ratchaburi 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 / Ratchaburi 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.884 / def 1.087 | Ratchaburi attack 0.551 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Ratchaburi xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 42% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.88) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.55x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
42%
2.40
36%
2.74
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
1.79
0.71
Ratchaburi xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.71 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 27 games, going 12W 7D 8L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 9W 1D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-0 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 36%, Ratchaburi 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 36% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 29% of games; Ratchaburi in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 36% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 36% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Ratchaburi finished level at 1-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG and Ratchaburi 0.71 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Ratchaburi attack 0.55 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48%, Ratchaburi 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.