Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Nong Bua Pitchaya welcome Prachuap to Pitchaya Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pitchaya Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.40 PPG versus Prachuap's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 0 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Prachuap trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 51% versus Prachuap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Prachuap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.692 / defence 0.859 | Prachuap attack 0.936 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.201. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 41 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 10% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 / Prachuap 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.692 / def 0.859 | Prachuap attack 0.936 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Prachuap xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 44% chance of winning, Prachuap a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 2W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.40
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.30
0.97
Prachuap xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.97 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 9D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.02 PPG from 41 outings (11W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.24 PPG, Prachuap on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.07 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Prachuap away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.65 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 4, Prachuap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 30%, Prachuap 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 65% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 40% of games; Prachuap in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 55% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 65% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Prachuap 3-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.69 / defence 0.86 against Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 1.53, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%, Prachuap 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.24 PPG, Prachuap 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nong Bua Pitchaya win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.