Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 45%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Nong Bua Pitchaya welcome Prachuap to Pitchaya Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Prachuap — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 2 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Prachuap trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 73% versus Prachuap 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% | Prachuap 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.77 xG and Prachuap 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.146 / defence 1.424 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.145. Data: 15 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 45 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 29%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 3.45. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 62% | Prachuap 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.77 / Prachuap 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.146 / def 1.424 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Prachuap xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 45% chance of winning, Prachuap a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
Record (5 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 3W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.78
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.17
1.40
Prachuap xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.40 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Prachuap away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.86 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Prachuap in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 4, Prachuap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 71%, Prachuap 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 29% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 43% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 29% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Prachuap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Prachuap 1-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.77 xG and Prachuap 1.40 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.15 / defence 1.42 against Prachuap attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 29%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 80%, Prachuap 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.