Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pitchaya Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 6L from 9 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 11% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 0W 3D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 0.33 for Lamphun Warrior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Lamphun Warrior in only 17%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 89% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Lamphun Warrior 11%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Lamphun Warrior 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.81 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.737 / defence 0.843 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.565 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.125. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 9 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 39% | Draw 39% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.56 | Draw 2.56 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.34. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.34 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Lamphun Warrior's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.34 combined xG gives a 15% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 23%. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Lamphun Warrior 17% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 39% | Draw 39% | Lamphun Warrior 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 23% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.81 / Lamphun Warrior 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.737 / def 0.843 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.565 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
23%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 39% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.74) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.56x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.6%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
39%
2.56
39%
2.59
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
1.34
0.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.35
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
59%
1.71
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.1 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.1 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.5%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.54 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 1.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 6L across 9 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.44 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 0.33 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.44 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 11%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 25% (Lamphun Warrior) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 25% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 75% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.81 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.54 xG, a combined 1.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.74 / defence 0.84 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.56 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 39% | Draw 39% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 39% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Lamphun Warrior 11%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.44 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.