Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Chiangrai United at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pitchaya Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 2D 1L from 6 Thai League 1 matches — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 1.40 PPG versus Chiangrai United's 1.83. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chiangrai United trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% versus Chiangrai United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Chiangrai United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.817 / defence 0.861 | Chiangrai United attack 1.127 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.332. Data: 5 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 6 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 36% | Chiangrai United 40%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Chiangrai United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 0% | Chiangrai United 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 36% | Chiangrai United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 / Chiangrai United 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.817 / def 0.861 | Chiangrai United attack 1.127 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Chiangrai United xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 24% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
24%
4.25
36%
2.77
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.25
1.29
Chiangrai United xG
4.25
24%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.29 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 2W 1D 2L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chiangrai United are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Chiangrai United's attacking output running into Nong Bua Pitchaya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 60%.
Defensively: Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Chiangrai United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chiangrai United go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
6
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Chiangrai United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%, Chiangrai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 60% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 60% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 60% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Chiangrai United attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 36% | Chiangrai United 40%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 20%, Chiangrai United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Nong Bua Pitchaya shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.