Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Nong Bua Pitchaya take on Buriram United.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United meet at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 7W 1D 2L at Pitchaya Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Buriram United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1.80 for Buriram United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 0 for Buriram United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Buriram United — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% versus Buriram United 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Buriram United 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.84 xG and Buriram United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.955 / defence 0.906 | Buriram United attack 0.943 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.166. Data: 25 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 28 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 28% | Draw 36% | Buriram United 36%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Buriram United 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Buriram United 30% BTTS from recent games.

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