Nakhon Pathom 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 39%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Prachuap at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nakhon Pathom's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Prachuap 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 63% versus Prachuap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 60% | Prachuap 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.27 xG and Prachuap 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.637 / defence 1.212 | Prachuap attack 0.794 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.097. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Nakhon Pathom games / 39 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Prachuap 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Pathom 60% | Prachuap 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.27 / Prachuap 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.637 / def 1.212 | Prachuap attack 0.794 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Prachuap xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 39% chance of winning, Prachuap a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.64) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.08
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.33
1.05
Prachuap xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.05 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 10D 19L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 10W 13D 15L from 38 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 0.97 PPG, Prachuap on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 7D 11L from 18 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.16 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 10D 19L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.06 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
3
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Prachuap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 67%, Prachuap 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nakhon Pathom) and 44% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 61% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 44% of Prachuap's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.27 xG and Prachuap 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.64 / defence 1.21 against Prachuap attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 60%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.97 PPG, Prachuap 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.