Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Port FC at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Pathom face Port FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Nakhon Pathom welcome Port FC to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Nakhon Pathom stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Nakhon Pathom at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Port FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Port FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Pathom 0.80 PPG, Port FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Port FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Nakhon Pathom 0–2 Port FC — a Port FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Nakhon Pathom trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Port FC trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 65% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Port FC 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nakhon Pathom surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Port FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.796 / defence 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.279. Nakhon Pathom's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Nakhon Pathom's defence rating of 1.452 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port FC's projected output up. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 57 games and Port FC's last 57.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 4.36 | Draw 4.47 | Port FC 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.23 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Pathom 80% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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