Muangthong United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Muangthong United (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Muangthong United face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Thunder Dome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Muangthong United's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Muangthong United lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 71% and Lamphun Warrior 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Muangthong United 77% | Lamphun Warrior 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.14 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.302 / defence 0.884 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.030 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.268. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Muangthong United games / 31 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 60% | Draw 20% | Lamphun Warrior 20%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Lamphun Warrior 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Muangthong United 50% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 60% | Draw 20% | Lamphun Warrior 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Muangthong United 2.14 / Lamphun Warrior 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.302 / def 0.884 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.030 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lamphun Warrior xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 60% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Muangthong United 3W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.30x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.03x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
60%
1.67
20%
4.91
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.29
1.15
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
42.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.15 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 16W 4D 11L from 31 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 13L across 31 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Muangthong United by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 10W 2D 3L from 15 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.48 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 16W 4D 11L in their last 31 games (1.68 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.13 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
2
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 60%, Lamphun Warrior 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Muangthong United and 67% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 47% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Muangthong United's matches and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.14 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.15 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.30 / defence 0.88 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 60% | Draw 20% | Lamphun Warrior 20%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 77%, Lamphun Warrior 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.