Muangthong United 2-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Thunder Dome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Muangthong United, 1.50 for Lamphun Warrior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Muangthong United lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 61% versus Lamphun Warrior 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 63% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.15 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.291 / defence 0.933 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.961 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.167. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Muangthong United games / 54 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 62% | Draw 21% | Lamphun Warrior 17%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Lamphun Warrior 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 70% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 62% | Draw 21% | Lamphun Warrior 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Muangthong United 2.15 / Lamphun Warrior 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.291 / def 0.933 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.961 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lamphun Warrior xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 62% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Muangthong United 2W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.29x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.96x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.67
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.20
1.05
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
51.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.05 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 25W 12D 17L from 54 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 21L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.24 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 4W 8D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 25W 12D 17L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.04 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
2
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 54%, Lamphun Warrior 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Muangthong United) and 42% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 38% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Muangthong United's recent games and 42% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Lamphun Warrior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.15 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.05 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.29 / defence 0.93 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 62% | Draw 21% | Lamphun Warrior 17%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 63%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.61 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.