Muangthong United 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Buriram United make the trip to Thunder Dome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United at Thunder Dome Stadium this season: 6W 3D 0L from 9 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 5W 0D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Muangthong United against 2.20 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Muangthong United lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 65% versus Buriram United 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 53% | Buriram United 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.47 xG and Buriram United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.350 / defence 1.218 | Buriram United attack 1.018 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.119. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Muangthong United games / 17 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 39% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 36%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Buriram United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 89% | Buriram United 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 39% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Muangthong United 1.47 / Buriram United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.350 / def 1.218 | Buriram United attack 1.018 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Buriram United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Buriram United kick off?
Muangthong United vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Buriram United?
Muangthong United 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Muangthong United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Buriram United part of?
Muangthong United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 39% chance of winning, Buriram United a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Muangthong United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Muangthong United 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Buriram United in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.02x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.01
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.86
1.39
Buriram United xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.39 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 5D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Muangthong United's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 1.88 points per game from 8 outings (5W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.71 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Buriram United in 24%.
Defensively: Buriram United in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 12W 2D 3L in their last 17 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Buriram United away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.50 PPG; Buriram United away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Buriram United in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 0-5 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Muangthong United
3
Draws
7
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 0, Buriram United have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Buriram United 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 88%, Buriram United 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Muangthong United) and 25% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 38%; Buriram United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Muangthong United's games and 25% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Muangthong United's recent games and 25% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Buriram United tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Muangthong United 0-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.47 xG and Buriram United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.35 / defence 1.22 against Buriram United attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 39% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 36%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Buriram United 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.