Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 2D 4L at 700th Anniversary Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 32% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.45 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.940 / defence 1.136 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.697 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.143. Data: 19 Lamphun Warrior games / 49 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 38% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.45 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.940 / def 1.136 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.697 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 48% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.24
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.35
0.91
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
19.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.91 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 6D 9L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 4W 5D 10L from 19 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.95 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.74 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lamphun Warrior 38% BTTS, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lamphun Warrior) and 38% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 50% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamphun Warrior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC finished level at 0-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.45 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 26%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.95 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.