Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Lamphun Warriors Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 3W 3D 4L at Lamphun Warriors Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.10 (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 50% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.885 / defence 1.365 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.873 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Data: 46 Lamphun Warrior games / 16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.40 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.885 / def 1.365 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.873 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 36% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 3 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.70
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.82
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.42 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 5D 7L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.06 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamphun Warrior) and 38% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.06 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.