Lampang FC 0-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lampang FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to Lampang Provincial Stadium to face Lampang FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Lampang FC (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lampang FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Lampang FC, 0.40 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lampang FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lampang FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 60% | Sukhothai FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.733 / defence 1.429 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.240. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing Lampang FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Lampang FC games / 5 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 46% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sukhothai FC 3.45. Lampang FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lampang FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lampang FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lampang FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 46% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Lampang FC 1.58 / Sukhothai FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.733 / def 1.429 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.675 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Lampang FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sukhothai FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Lampang FC 0 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 46% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lampang FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lampang FC's attack at 0.73x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.68x) against Lampang FC's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lampang FC Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.02
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
Sukhothai FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.20 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Lampang FC have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lampang FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lampang FC are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Attack vs Defence
Lampang FC are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 20%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Lampang FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lampang FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
1
Draws
1
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Lampang FC) and 20% (Sukhothai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lampang FC) and 40% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 40%; Lampang FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Sukhothai FC in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 20% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lampang FC's recent games and 40% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Lampang FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Lampang FC 0-1 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lampang FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.43 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.56, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 46% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 29%, with Lampang FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 60%, Sukhothai FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lampang FC arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lampang FC managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.