Lampang FC 1-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Lampang FC welcome Nong Bua Pitchaya to Lampang Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nong Bua Pitchaya haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 1.27 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.172 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.106. Data: 0 Lampang FC games / 30 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 32% | Draw 26% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 32% | Draw 26% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lampang FC 1.27 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.172 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Lampang FC 1 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 32% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lampang FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Lampang FC's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.81
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.49
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.49 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Pre-Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lampang FC
0
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 1, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Lampang FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Lampang FC defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lampang FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 1.27 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.49 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.17 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 32% | Draw 26% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lampang FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.