Lampang FC 1-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Lampang Provincial Stadium to take on Lampang FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lampang FC — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 4L across 6 games at Lampang Provincial Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lampang FC are significantly better at Lampang Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lampang FC 0.40 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Lampang FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 77% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lampang FC 46% | Lamphun Warrior 15%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 69% | Lamphun Warrior 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.81 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.702 / defence 1.492 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.565 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.187. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Lampang FC games / 13 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 28% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 38%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Lamphun Warrior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Lampang FC 33% | Lamphun Warrior 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 28% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Lampang FC 0.81 / Lamphun Warrior 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.702 / def 1.492 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.565 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 November 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Lampang FC 1 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 28% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lampang FC's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Lampang FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
28%
3.56
34%
2.97
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
1.81
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.00 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Lampang FC have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 2W 2D 9L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 1W 4D 8L from 13 games, 0.54 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lampang FC on 0.62 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 0.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lampang FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lampang FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 15%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lampang FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
0
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lampang FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lampang FC 33% BTTS, Lamphun Warrior 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lampang FC) and 17% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 33%; Lampang FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 17% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lampang FC's recent games and 17% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Lampang FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Lampang FC 1-2 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.81 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.49 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.56 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 28% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 38%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 69%, Lamphun Warrior 15%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lampang FC 0.62 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.