Khon Kaen United 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Prachuap at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Prachuap — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.93 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.783 / defence 1.274 | Prachuap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.353. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Khon Kaen United games / 1 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 20% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 46%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Prachuap 2.17. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 20% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.93 / Prachuap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.783 / def 1.274 | Prachuap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Prachuap xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Khon Kaen United 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 20% chance of winning, Prachuap a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Prachuap (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (0.78) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
20%
4.93
34%
2.95
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.40
1.47
Prachuap xG
4.93
20%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
21.34
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.47 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Prachuap are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khon Kaen United.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Prachuap in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 3, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Khon Kaen United 1-4 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 100% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 100% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Prachuap 2-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.93 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Prachuap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 20% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 46%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 0%, Prachuap 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Khon Kaen United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khon Kaen United scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.