Khon Kaen United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior meet at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Khon Kaen United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 3W 5D 2L at Khon Kaen Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 1.30 for Lamphun Warrior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Khon Kaen United, 0 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 46% versus Lamphun Warrior 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khon Kaen United 31% | Lamphun Warrior 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.764 / defence 1.040 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.692 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.162. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Khon Kaen United games / 26 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 4.00. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.24 / Lamphun Warrior 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.764 / def 1.040 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.692 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lamphun Warrior xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 46% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.76x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.69x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.08
0.84
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.84 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 11D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 1.04 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.42 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Khon Kaen United) and 33% (Lamphun Warrior) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Khon Kaen United and 25% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 50% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 33% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.84 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 31%, Lamphun Warrior 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.