Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Uthai Thani.

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Match Analysis

Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chiangrai United at 1.30 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Chiangrai United 1–1 Uthai Thani — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 51% versus Uthai Thani 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 41% | Uthai Thani 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Uthai Thani have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Uthai Thani 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.845 / defence 0.924 | Uthai Thani attack 0.766 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 59 games and Uthai Thani's last 59.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.02 | Draw 3.02 | Uthai Thani 5.73. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 50% (last 10 away games).

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