Chiangrai United 0-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Muangthong United at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Leo Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 3 for Muangthong United and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 44% versus Muangthong United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 39% | Muangthong United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Muangthong United 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.881 / defence 0.761 | Muangthong United attack 0.898 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.185. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Chiangrai United games / 42 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Muangthong United 5.56. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Muangthong United 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Chiangrai United 1.46 / Muangthong United 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.881 / def 0.761 | Muangthong United attack 0.898 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Muangthong United xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Chiangrai United 0 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 49% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chiangrai United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Record (8 meetings): Chiangrai United 4W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
49%
2.03
33%
3.04
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
Muangthong United xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
4%
24.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.81 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 8D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (15W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.29 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.37 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Muangthong United away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.90 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 30%, Muangthong United 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Muangthong United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 65% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Chiangrai United 0-2 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Muangthong United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Muangthong United outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.88 / defence 0.76 against Muangthong United attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 18%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Muangthong United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 39%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Muangthong United's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG, Muangthong United 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.