Chiangrai United 5-1 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Lampang FC meet at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LEO Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lampang FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lampang FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Chiangrai United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lampang FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Lampang FC in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Lampang FC — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chiangrai United 25% | Lampang FC 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 25% | Lampang FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.50 xG and Lampang FC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.011 / defence 0.790 | Lampang FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.117. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Chiangrai United games / 4 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Lampang FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 30% | Lampang FC 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Chiangrai United 1.50 / Lampang FC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.011 / def 0.790 | Lampang FC attack 0.854 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lampang FC xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC?
Chiangrai United 5 - 1 Lampang FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 55% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chiangrai United and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lampang FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Lampang FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Lampang FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Lampang FC's attack (0.85x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.82
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.26
0.75
Lampang FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
4%
24.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.75 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lampang FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Lampang FC in 25%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Lampang FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Lampang FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Lampang FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
0
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Lampang FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Lampang FC 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Lampang FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Chiangrai United) and 25% (Lampang FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Lampang FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Lampang FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Lampang FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 25% of Lampang FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Lampang FC 5-1 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.50 xG and Lampang FC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against Lampang FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 19%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 25%, Lampang FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Lampang FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Chiangrai United scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Lampang FC shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.