Chiangrai United 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to LEO Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LEO Chiangrai Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 2.00 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 0 for Chonburi FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 46% versus Chonburi FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.14 xG and Chonburi FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.113 / defence 0.772 | Chonburi FC attack 1.469 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.186. Chonburi FC's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Chiangrai United games / 41 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 31% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Chonburi FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 50% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 31% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Chiangrai United 1.14 / Chonburi FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.113 / def 0.772 | Chonburi FC attack 1.469 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Chonburi FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 31% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.11x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.50
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
Chonburi FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.34 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 18W 12D 11L from 41 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 12L across 41 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.61 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.71 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 63%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 18W 12D 11L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 19W 10D 12L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.50 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 40%, Chonburi FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Chiangrai United) and 60% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 60% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 60% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.14 xG and Chonburi FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.11 / defence 0.77 against Chonburi FC attack 1.47 / defence 0.80, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 31% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 40%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 42%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.61 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.