Buriram United 6-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Sukhothai FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.52 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.041 / defence 0.944 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.060. Data: 31 Buriram United games / 1 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 53% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 4.76. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 53% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Buriram United 1.52 / Sukhothai FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.041 / def 0.944 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sukhothai FC xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United 6 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 53% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Buriram United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.86
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.37
0.85
Sukhothai FC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.85 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Buriram United's recent matches and 0% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Buriram United's matches and 100% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Buriram United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 6-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.52 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 53% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 21%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 100%, Sukhothai FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.