Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Sukhothai FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Buriram United: 7 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 52% versus Sukhothai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 68% | Sukhothai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.78 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.465 / defence 0.916 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.658 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.152. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Buriram United games / 50 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 80% | Draw 14% | Sukhothai FC 6%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | Sukhothai FC 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 60% | Sukhothai FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 80% | Draw 14% | Sukhothai FC 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 48% | xG Buriram United 2.78 / Sukhothai FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.465 / def 0.916 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.658 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sukhothai FC xG
48%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United 6 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 80% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Buriram United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Buriram United 7W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.78. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
80%
1.25
14%
6.99
6%
16.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.47
0.69
Sukhothai FC xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.99
14%
Draw
16.95
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
6%
16.05
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.69 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 50 games, going 38W 6D 6L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 50 outings (13W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 18W 2D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.57 points per game from 23 outings (1W 10D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.86 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 60%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 38W 6D 6L in their last 50 games (2.40 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.43 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
9
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 9, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 39%, Sukhothai FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Buriram United) and 44% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Buriram United's recent matches and 52% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Buriram United's recent games and 44% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 6-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.78 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.69 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.47 / defence 0.92 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 80% | Draw 14% | Sukhothai FC 6%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 68%, Sukhothai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.30 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.