Buriram United 6-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Prachuap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Prachuap travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Buriram United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Buriram United have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Prachuap have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Buriram United winning.
The historical record gives Buriram United a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Prachuap trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 50% versus Prachuap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 64% | Prachuap 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.44 xG and Prachuap 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.495 / defence 0.926 | Prachuap attack 0.782 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.206. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Buriram United games / 36 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 70% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 9%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Prachuap 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 70% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 70% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Buriram United 2.44 / Prachuap 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.495 / def 0.926 | Prachuap attack 0.782 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Prachuap xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Prachuap kick off?
Buriram United vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Buriram United 6 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Buriram United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Prachuap part of?
Buriram United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 70% chance of winning, Prachuap a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Buriram United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Prachuap?
Record (6 meetings): Buriram United 5W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Buriram United and Prachuap in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
70%
1.44
21%
4.70
9%
10.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.32
0.87
Prachuap xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
10.91
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
9%
11.50
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
1%
125.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.87 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 25W 10D 1L from 36 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 14L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 13W 4D 0L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 0W 7D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 25W 10D 1L in their last 36 games (2.36 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Prachuap away?
Buriram United's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.53 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.41 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Prachuap in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Buriram United
1
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Prachuap have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Prachuap?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 53%, Prachuap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Buriram United) and 41% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Prachuap in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Buriram United's games and 65% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Buriram United's matches and 41% of Prachuap's.
Do Buriram United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 6-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.44 xG and Prachuap 0.87 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.93 against Prachuap attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 70% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 9%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 64%, Prachuap 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Prachuap's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.