Buriram United 2-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Buriram United welcome Port FC to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 10W 0D 0L at Chang Arena — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Buriram United are significantly better at Chang Arena than their overall form suggests.
Port FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Buriram United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Port FC, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 3–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 44% versus Port FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 51% | Port FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.76 xG and Port FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.309 / defence 0.720 | Port FC attack 1.150 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.147. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Buriram United games / 57 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Port FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 40% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Port FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Buriram United 1.76 / Port FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.309 / def 0.720 | Port FC attack 1.150 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Port FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Port FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Buriram United 2 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Port FC part of?
Buriram United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 56% chance of winning, Port FC a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Buriram United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.31) and Port FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.07
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Port FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
29.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.95 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 41W 9D 7L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 23W 16D 18L from 57 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.43 PPG from 28 outings (21W 5D 2L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 7W 9D 12L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 41W 9D 7L in their last 57 games (2.32 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 16D 18L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Port FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.43 PPG; Port FC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Port FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 46%, Port FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Buriram United) and 57% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Buriram United's games and 68% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Buriram United's recent games and 57% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Port FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Buriram United 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Buriram United 2-3 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.76 xG and Port FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.31 / defence 0.72 against Port FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Port FC 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 51%, Port FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.