Buriram United 2-1 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Buriram United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pattaya United make the trip to Khao Kradong Stadium to face Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Khao Kradong Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Khao Kradong Stadium.
Pattaya United have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pattaya United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattaya United's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Buriram United against 1.60 for Pattaya United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pattaya United — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 20% versus Pattaya United 80%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 40% | Pattaya United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.52 xG and Pattaya United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.240 / defence 0.857 | Pattaya United attack 0.912 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.330. Data: 5 Buriram United games / 5 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 45% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 22%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Pattaya United 4.55. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 33% | Pattaya United 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khao Kradong Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 45% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 1.52 / Pattaya United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.240 / def 0.857 | Pattaya United attack 0.912 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pattaya United xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Pattaya United kick off?
Buriram United vs Pattaya United kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Pattaya United?
Buriram United 2 - 1 Pattaya United.
Where is Buriram United vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What competition is Buriram United vs Pattaya United part of?
Buriram United vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 45% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Pattaya United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.24) and Pattaya United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pattaya United's attack (0.91x) against Buriram United's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.09
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.56
1.04
Pattaya United xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
20.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.04 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattaya United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattaya United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Buriram United against 1.60 for Pattaya United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pattaya United's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Pattaya United in 80%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Pattaya United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Pattaya United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.33 PPG; Pattaya United away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Pattaya United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Pattaya United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Pattaya United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Pattaya United 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Pattaya United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 33%, Pattaya United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Buriram United) and 33% (Pattaya United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Pattaya United in 33%; Buriram United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Buriram United's recent matches and 67% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Buriram United's recent games and 33% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Pattaya United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Pattaya United 2-1 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.52 xG and Pattaya United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Pattaya United attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 45% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 22%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 40%, Pattaya United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Pattaya United's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Buriram United 2.00 PPG, Pattaya United 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Buriram United win broke the near-deadlock. Pattaya United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.