Buriram United 3-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Chang Arena to face Buriram United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Buriram United have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Chang Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Buriram United's favour (2.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Buriram United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nakhon Pathom in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Buriram United lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 53% and Nakhon Pathom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 65% | Nakhon Pathom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.84 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.467 / defence 1.020 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.020 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.305. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — their λ of 2.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Buriram United games / 34 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 67% | Draw 19% | Nakhon Pathom 14%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Nakhon Pathom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.84 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.20 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 70% | Nakhon Pathom 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 67% | Draw 19% | Nakhon Pathom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 71% | xG Buriram United 2.84 / Nakhon Pathom 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.467 / def 1.020 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.020 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nakhon Pathom xG
71%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Buriram United 3 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 67% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom in?
Buriram United (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.47x the league average against Nakhon Pathom's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (1.02x) against Buriram United's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.29
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
Buriram United xG
Total xG
4.20
1.36
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
6%
17.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
1%
118.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.36 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United come into this having played 34 games, going 24W 9D 1L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Buriram United's home form reads 12W 4D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.24 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 71%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 24W 9D 1L in their last 34 games (2.38 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Buriram United, 75% for Nakhon Pathom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Buriram United and 62% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Buriram United's games and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Buriram United's matches and 62% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Pathom 3-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.84 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.36 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.47 / defence 1.02 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 67% | Draw 19% | Nakhon Pathom 14%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 65%, Nakhon Pathom 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.