BG Pathum United 2-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 53%, yet in-form Suphanburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Suphanburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
BG Pathum United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at BG Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suphanburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Suphanburi are 0.60 PPG clear of BG Pathum United in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — BG Pathum United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with BG Pathum United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
BG Pathum United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Suphanburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 54% versus Suphanburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 41% | Suphanburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Suphanburi 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.131 / defence 1.076 | Suphanburi attack 0.753 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 0.975 / away 1.099. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 BG Pathum United games / 22 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 53% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 21%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Suphanburi 4.76. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suphanburi (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 40% | Suphanburi 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 53% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG BG Pathum United 1.57 / Suphanburi 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.131 / def 1.076 | Suphanburi attack 0.753 / def 1.427 | league avg home 0.975 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Suphanburi xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi?
BG Pathum United 2 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 53% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both BG Pathum United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): BG Pathum United 1W | Draws 0 | Suphanburi 0W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Suphanburi in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Suphanburi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.13) and Suphanburi's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suphanburi's attack (0.75x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.79
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.46
0.89
Suphanburi xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.89 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BG Pathum United come into this having played 22 games, going 10W 8D 4L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Suphanburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
BG Pathum United's home form reads 7W 1D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Suphanburi have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 10W 8D 4L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Suphanburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.20 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.90 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Suphanburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suphanburi in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
BG Pathum United
0
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 2, Suphanburi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when BG Pathum United 2-0 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Suphanburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 40%, Suphanburi 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (BG Pathum United) and 60% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Suphanburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Suphanburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 60% of Suphanburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 60% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Suphanburi tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Suphanburi 2-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Suphanburi 0.89 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Suphanburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against Suphanburi attack 0.75 / defence 1.43, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 53% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 21%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 41%, Suphanburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suphanburi's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Suphanburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.