BG Pathum United 5-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BG Pathum United face Muangthong United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
BG Pathum United welcome Muangthong United to BG Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, BG Pathum United have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
BG Pathum United's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Muangthong United stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BG Pathum United 1.70 PPG, Muangthong United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for BG Pathum United, 1 for Muangthong United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended BG Pathum United 0–1 Muangthong United — a Muangthong United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Muangthong United trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 39% versus Muangthong United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 52% | Muangthong United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / defence 0.911 | Muangthong United attack 0.948 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.096. Data: built from BG Pathum United's last 33 games and Muangthong United's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.70 | Draw 2.98 | Muangthong United 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: BG Pathum United 50% (last 10 home games) | Muangthong United 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (BG Pathum United 33 games, Muangthong United 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG BG Pathum United 1.09 / Muangthong United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / def 0.911 | Muangthong United attack 0.948 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Muangthong United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United FAQs
What time does BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
BG Pathum United 5 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 37% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both BG Pathum United and Muangthong United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.96) and Muangthong United's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BG Pathum United's last 33 games and Muangthong United's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
37%
2.70
34%
2.98
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.04
0.95
Muangthong United xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.95 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BG Pathum United come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 7D 13L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
BG Pathum United's home form reads 10W 2D 4L across their last 16 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 16 away games (5W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.73 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Muangthong United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
BG Pathum United (Home) vs Muangthong United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United Form FAQs
What form are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Muangthong United away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.25 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2022, when BG Pathum United won BG Pathum United 3-0 Muangthong United.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BG Pathum United have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Muangthong United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Muangthong United 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Muangthong United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (BG Pathum United) and 50% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BG Pathum United and Muangthong United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 56% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Muangthong United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 56% of Muangthong United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Muangthong United 5-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Muangthong United attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 52%, Muangthong United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.