Bangkok United 5-2 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bangkok United vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bangkok United welcome Suphanburi to Thammasat Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Bangkok United have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bangkok United have posted 5W 5D 0L at Thammasat Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suphanburi — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bangkok United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bangkok United, 1 for Suphanburi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Suphanburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bangkok United in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 50% versus Suphanburi 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 43% | Suphanburi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.77 xG and Suphanburi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.228 / defence 1.020 | Suphanburi attack 0.784 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.200. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Bangkok United games / 28 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 55% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 19%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Suphanburi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bangkok United 50% | Suphanburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 55% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Bangkok United 1.77 / Suphanburi 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.228 / def 1.020 | Suphanburi attack 0.784 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Suphanburi xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Suphanburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Suphanburi?
Bangkok United 5 - 2 Suphanburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Suphanburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 55% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bangkok United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): Bangkok United 0W | Draws 0 | Suphanburi 1W.
What form are Bangkok United and Suphanburi in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.23) and Suphanburi's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Bangkok United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.78
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
Suphanburi xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
3%
31.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.96 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Suphanburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bangkok United come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 8D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (7W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Bangkok United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Suphanburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bangkok United's home form reads 7W 6D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Bangkok United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Suphanburi have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bangkok United are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Current Season
Suphanburi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Suphanburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.08 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Suphanburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suphanburi in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bangkok United
0
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 1, Suphanburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Bangkok United 5-2 Suphanburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 54%, Suphanburi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bangkok United) and 62% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Suphanburi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bangkok United's games and 62% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bangkok United vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bangkok United's recent games and 62% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Suphanburi 5-2 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.77 xG and Suphanburi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suphanburi outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.23 / defence 1.02 against Suphanburi attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 55% | Draw 26% | Suphanburi 19%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 43%, Suphanburi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Suphanburi's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suphanburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.