Bangkok United 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior meet at Thammasat Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Thammasat Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Bangkok United's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 82% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Bangkok United 18% | Lamphun Warrior 9%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bangkok United 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.397 / defence 0.853 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.603 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.201. Bangkok United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Bangkok United games / 11 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 57% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 15%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Bangkok United 50% | Lamphun Warrior 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 57% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Bangkok United 1.45 / Lamphun Warrior 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.397 / def 0.853 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.603 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Lamphun Warrior xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Bangkok United 2 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 57% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.40) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.60x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.54
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.07
0.62
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
4%
28.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.62 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 7W 2D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.55 PPG overall record — Lamphun Warrior travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bangkok United have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 9%.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.40 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bangkok United
2
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Bangkok United) and 20% (Lamphun Warrior) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Bangkok United and 20% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 40%; Lamphun Warrior in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 20% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bangkok United's recent games and 20% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.62 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.40 / defence 0.85 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.60 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 57% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 15%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 27%, Lamphun Warrior 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 14%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 9% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 82% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.