Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC host Lamphun Warrior at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ayutthaya FC at 0.70 PPG versus Lamphun Warrior's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ayutthaya FC, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 62% and Lamphun Warrior 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 47% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.093 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.890 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.272. Data: 34 Ayutthaya FC games / 34 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.39 / Lamphun Warrior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.959 / def 1.093 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.890 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 41% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.83
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.24 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 9D 15L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 4W 18D 12L from 34 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 1.15 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 8D 7L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 18D 12L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.76 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ayutthaya FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
1
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 3 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 71%, Lamphun Warrior at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ayutthaya FC) and 41% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 65% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Ayutthaya FC 0-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 33%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 47%, Lamphun Warrior 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.15 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.