Ayutthaya FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC host Lamphun Warrior at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ayutthaya FC at 1.20 PPG versus Lamphun Warrior's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 83% and Lamphun Warrior 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ayutthaya FC 67% | Lamphun Warrior 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.75 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.804 / defence 1.427 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.026 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.208. Lamphun Warrior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Ayutthaya FC games / 42 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 71% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.75 / Lamphun Warrior 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.804 / def 1.427 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.026 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Lamphun Warrior xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 36% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.80x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.71
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.77
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.77 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 1W 5D 6L from 12 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ayutthaya FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L). That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.42 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.50 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
1
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 100%, Lamphun Warrior at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ayutthaya FC and 83% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 83% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Ayutthaya FC and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.75 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.77 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.43 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 1.43, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 67%, Lamphun Warrior 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.