Yverdon Sport 2-1 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Winterthur to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Municipal. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Winterthur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 0.80 (FC Winterthur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 1 for FC Winterthur and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Yverdon Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Winterthur trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 56% and FC Winterthur 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 58% | FC Winterthur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.62 xG and FC Winterthur 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.809 / defence 0.912 | FC Winterthur attack 0.843 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.193. FC Winterthur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Yverdon Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Yverdon Sport games / 59 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 25% | FC Winterthur 21%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | FC Winterthur 4.76. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 20% | FC Winterthur 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 25% | FC Winterthur 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.62 / FC Winterthur 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.809 / def 0.912 | FC Winterthur attack 0.843 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Winterthur xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 1 FC Winterthur.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 54% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Record (5 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 3 | FC Winterthur 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Winterthur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC Winterthur's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Winterthur's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.93
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.54
0.92
FC Winterthur xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
24.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.92 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 15D 30L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Winterthur sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (18W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.12 PPG, FC Winterthur on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Winterthur have taken 0.69 points per game from 32 outings (4W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 1.34 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur in 66%.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Winterthur away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.81 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Winterthur specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
4
Draws
1
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, FC Winterthur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 50%, FC Winterthur 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Yverdon Sport and 66% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Winterthur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Yverdon Sport's games and 69% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 66% of FC Winterthur's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC Winterthur 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Winterthur 2-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.62 xG and FC Winterthur 0.92 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against FC Winterthur attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 54% | Draw 25% | FC Winterthur 21%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 58%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.12 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.