Yverdon Sport 1-0 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 36%, yet in-form FC ST. Gallen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Municipal, Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC ST. Gallen arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Yverdon Sport, 2 for FC ST. Gallen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 56% versus FC ST. Gallen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 57% | FC ST. Gallen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.769 / defence 0.894 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.025 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.215. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Yverdon Sport games / 56 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 32% | FC ST. Gallen 32%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | FC ST. Gallen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yverdon Sport at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC ST. Gallen (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 30% | FC ST. Gallen 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 32% | FC ST. Gallen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.19 / FC ST. Gallen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.769 / def 0.894 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.025 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC ST. Gallen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport 1 - 0 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 36% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (5 meetings): Yverdon Sport 2W | Draws 1 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (1.02x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.15
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.30
1.11
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.11 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport's recent record stands at 18W 14D 29L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 19L across 61 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.51 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yverdon Sport have managed 16W 6D 8L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC ST. Gallen's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.59 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 18W 14D 29L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 25W 17D 19L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.80 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
2
Draws
2
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 50%, FC ST. Gallen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Yverdon Sport) and 40% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 30% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC ST. Gallen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 57% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 40% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC ST. Gallen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 32% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 57%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.