Yverdon Sport 0-1 FC Luzern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Luzern at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Luzern to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Municipal, Yverdon Sport have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Luzern — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Luzern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Luzern away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 1.30 (FC Luzern). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 2 for FC Luzern and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Luzern trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 58% and FC Luzern 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 60% | FC Luzern 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.75 xG and FC Luzern 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.887 / defence 1.208 | FC Luzern attack 1.273 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.201. FC Luzern bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Yverdon Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Luzern have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Yverdon Sport games / 48 FC Luzern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 41%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | FC Luzern 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Luzern as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Luzern offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 50% | FC Luzern 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.75 / FC Luzern 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.887 / def 1.208 | FC Luzern attack 1.273 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FC Luzern (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.85
FC Luzern xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 1 FC Luzern.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 36% chance of winning, FC Luzern a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Luzern the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern?
Record (5 meetings): Yverdon Sport 3W | Draws 0 | FC Luzern 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. FC Luzern (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Luzern's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Luzern's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Luzern Win
36%
2.74
23%
4.35
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.59
1.85
FC Luzern xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.85 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 12D 24L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Luzern's form line: 19W 15D 19L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for FC Luzern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.19 PPG, FC Luzern on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (15W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 6W 8D 12L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; FC Luzern are on 1.40 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Luzern in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Luzern
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Luzern have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Luzern away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.92 PPG; FC Luzern away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Luzern specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
3
FC Luzern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC Luzern have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Yverdon Sport 2-2 FC Luzern.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Luzern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yverdon Sport at 58%, FC Luzern at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Yverdon Sport and 62% for FC Luzern. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Luzern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Luzern?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Yverdon Sport's games and 77% of FC Luzern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 62% of FC Luzern's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Luzern in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Luzern edge out Yverdon Sport 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Luzern beat Yverdon Sport 0-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.75 xG and FC Luzern 1.85 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Yverdon Sport fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC Luzern landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against FC Luzern attack 1.27 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 36% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 41%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 60%, FC Luzern 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Luzern's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.19 PPG, FC Luzern 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.