Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-5 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC ST. Gallen make the trip to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 2W 3D 2L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC ST. Gallen are 0.80 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, FC ST. Gallen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W, FC ST. Gallen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62% and FC ST. Gallen 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 69% | FC ST. Gallen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.12 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.762 / defence 1.276 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.764 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.299. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 48 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 29% | Draw 34% | FC ST. Gallen 37%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | FC ST. Gallen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 71% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 29% | Draw 34% | FC ST. Gallen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.12 / FC ST. Gallen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.762 / def 1.276 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.764 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC ST. Gallen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2 - 5 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 29% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC ST. Gallen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.76x) against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
29%
3.39
34%
2.95
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.27 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen's form line: 7W 3D 3L from 13 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC ST. Gallen are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, FC ST. Gallen have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 1.00 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC ST. Gallen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0
Draws
3
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen?
From 3 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 67% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) and 17% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 33% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 67% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's recent games and 17% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-5 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.12 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.76 / defence 1.28 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 29% | Draw 34% | FC ST. Gallen 37%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 69%, FC ST. Gallen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.