Servette FC 1-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Servette FC vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 games at Stade de Genève this term (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Servette FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lausanne (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Servette FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Lausanne in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 74% and Lausanne 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 74% | Lausanne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.58 xG and Lausanne 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.309 | Lausanne attack 0.655 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.620. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Servette FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Servette FC games / 19 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 42% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 34%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 78% | Lausanne 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 42% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Servette FC 1.58 / Lausanne 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.089 / def 1.309 | Lausanne attack 0.655 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.620 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lausanne xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs Lausanne kick off?
Servette FC vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Servette FC 1 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is Servette FC vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Lausanne part of?
Servette FC vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 42% chance of winning, Lausanne a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Servette FC and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Servette FC and Lausanne in?
Servette FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.09) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.66x) against Servette FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.11
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Servette FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
Lausanne xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.39 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 4D 8L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne's form line: 2W 6D 11L from 19 games, 0.63 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Servette FC are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Lausanne have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.00 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Lausanne in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Lausanne away?
Servette FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Servette FC
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and Lausanne?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Servette FC, 67% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Servette FC) and 33% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Servette FC's games and 67% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Servette FC's matches and 33% of Lausanne's.
Do Servette FC and Lausanne tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out Lausanne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Lausanne 1-0 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.58 xG and Lausanne 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.31 against Lausanne attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 42% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 34%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 74%, Lausanne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.