Lausanne 3-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Yverdon Sport at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 0.90 PPG, Yverdon Sport 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lausanne have won 1, Yverdon Sport 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 59% and Yverdon Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 57% | Yverdon Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.12 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.157 / defence 1.208 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.764 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.331. Data: 39 Lausanne games / 39 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 58% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Yverdon Sport 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 50% | Yverdon Sport 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 58% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Lausanne 2.12 / Yverdon Sport 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.157 / def 1.208 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.764 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Yverdon Sport xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne 3 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 58% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lausanne and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Record (4 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 2W.
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.84
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.35
1.23
Yverdon Sport xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
12%
8.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
3%
38.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.23 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 13D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (14W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.11 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lausanne's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.36 points per game from 22 outings (1W 5D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.27 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Lausanne's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.41 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lausanne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 54%, Yverdon Sport 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lausanne) and 50% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lausanne have failed to score in 27% of games; Yverdon Sport in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lausanne's games and 59% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lausanne's recent games and 50% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 3-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.12 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.23 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.16 / defence 1.21 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 58% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, Yverdon Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.11 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.