Lausanne 0-3 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 3D 3L at Stade de la Tuilière — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Servette FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Lausanne against 0.90 for Servette FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lausanne register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant games, Servette FC in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 79% and Servette FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 50% | Servette FC 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.45 xG and Servette FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.838 / defence 1.404 | Servette FC attack 0.840 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.452. Servette FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Lausanne games / 14 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 33% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Servette FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 86% | Servette FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 33% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Lausanne 1.45 / Servette FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.838 / def 1.404 | Servette FC attack 0.840 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Servette FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 0 - 3 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 33% chance of winning, Servette FC a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Servette FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.84x) against Lausanne's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
33%
3.05
23%
4.28
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.17
1.71
Servette FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.71 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 5D 7L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Lausanne against 1.07 for Servette FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.64 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Servette FC in 86%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Lausanne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.00 PPG; Servette FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
3
Draws
5
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Lausanne, 100% for Servette FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lausanne and 83% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Lausanne's games and 100% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lausanne's matches and 83% of Servette FC's.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Servette FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Lausanne 0-3 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.45 xG and Servette FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Servette FC outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 1.40 against Servette FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 33% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 44%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 50%, Servette FC 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Servette FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.79 PPG, Servette FC 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.