FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lausanne at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Winterthur vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stadion Schützenwiese to face FC Winterthur in Super League, Relegation Group - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Winterthur's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Winterthur have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadion Schützenwiese — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lausanne arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lausanne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for FC Winterthur, 3 for Lausanne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Lausanne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Winterthur — key trading statistics (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Winterthur 58% versus Lausanne 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Winterthur 64% | Lausanne 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 1.34 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.677 / defence 1.344 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. FC Winterthur's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 FC Winterthur games / 66 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Lausanne 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
FC Winterthur dominate the H2H record, yet Lausanne are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 70% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Winterthur 1.34 / Lausanne 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.677 / def 1.344 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Lausanne xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
FC Winterthur 2 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne part of?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne is a Relegation Group - 36 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 29% chance of winning, Lausanne a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Winterthur and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
Record (9 meetings): FC Winterthur 5W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 3W.
What form are FC Winterthur and Lausanne in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Winterthur's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.86x) against FC Winterthur's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.51
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
2.99
1.65
Lausanne xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
18.00
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.65 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Winterthur's recent record stands at 15W 15D 43L from 73 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 28L across 73 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lausanne by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Winterthur heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Winterthur have managed 9W 8D 18L from 35 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 8W 12D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.55 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 62%.
Last 73 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 15W 15D 43L in their last 73 games (0.82 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 25W 20D 28L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Lausanne away?
Lausanne's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Winterthur won 2-5 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Winterthur have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Winterthur
1
Draws
3
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 6, Lausanne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
FC Winterthur have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Winterthur 54%, Lausanne 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (FC Winterthur) and 60% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Winterthur have failed to score in 26% of games; Lausanne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Winterthur's games and 60% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of FC Winterthur's matches and 60% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Winterthur and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Winterthur defy the odds to beat Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Relegation Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.34 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Winterthur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 64%, Lausanne 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.