FC ST. Gallen 5-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 67%, yet in-form Yverdon Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Yverdon Sport's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Yverdon Sport away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Yverdon Sport are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) — FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yverdon Sport in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 1 for Yverdon Sport and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2023, ended FC ST. Gallen 4–0 Yverdon Sport — a FC ST. Gallen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 58% and Yverdon Sport 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 52% | Yverdon Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.21 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.140 / defence 1.210 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.660 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.133. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.366 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC ST. Gallen's projected output up. Yverdon Sport's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. FC ST. Gallen's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Yverdon Sport's projected output up. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 67 games and Yverdon Sport's last 31.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.49 | Draw 5.29 | Yverdon Sport 7.08. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 60% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 32 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.21 / Yverdon Sport 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.140 / def 1.210 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.660 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Yverdon Sport xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
FC ST. Gallen 5 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 32) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 67% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.14) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.66x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 67 games and Yverdon Sport's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.29
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.11
0.91
Yverdon Sport xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
64.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 0.91 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 12W 8D 11L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 10W 7D 14L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.19 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 15 home games (9W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 11L from their last 15 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.26 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 65%.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 2.00 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 Yverdon Sport on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2025: Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC ST. Gallen, 67% for Yverdon Sport — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC ST. Gallen and 53% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 53% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 87% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Yverdon Sport 5-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.21 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.91 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.21 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.66 / defence 1.37, drawn from 67/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 52%, Yverdon Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.42 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.